THE 15TH CONFERENCE OF PARTIES

Humbly hosting a crucial conference

In December, the eyes of the world will be on Denmark when the United Nations holds its 15th confe-rence on climate change

By Morten Andersen

When the world’s leaders meet in Copenhagen in December, their task is to reach a new global agreement on combating climate change. The agreement will replace the Kyoto Protocol, which expires in 2012. The Protocol comprises obligations for a small number of countries and was adopted back in 1997 when only few had become aware of the scope of the climate problem. So the Kyoto Protocol cannot just be extended. A new agreement is needed.

As the host country, Denmark has the task of trying to reconcile conflicting viewpoints so that it will be possible to reach an agreement.

“To host such an event is a great honour. Denmark takes on this task humbly and well aware that no matter how hard we try, we have no guarantee of success. We will work for an ambitious result. But by disagreeing, one country can make the whole thing tumble. As hosts, we therefore have special obligations. We must listen and mediate in order to make sure that we reach an agreement and that all countries are on board”, says Connie Hedegaard, Danish Minister for Climate and Energy.

The Greenland Dialogue
In 2005 Denmark initiated a set of informal meetings, where ministers and senior negotiators from the countries expected to be key players at the conference in Copenhagen could exchange views and build mutual trust.

The series of meetings, launched in Greenland where the attendees could see glaciers melting with their own eyes, was called The Greenland Dialogue.

At the beginning of July 2009, the Dialogue returned to Greenland. At a meeting in Ilulissat, attendees agreed on a specific target for limiting global warming.

“It is the fist time we have felt consensus between the attending countries that the global temperature must not rise more than 2ºC compared to the pre-industrialisation level,” Connie Hedegaard said at the close of the meeting.

Later in the same month, when the world’s largest economies met for an expanded G8 summit in Italy, support was achieved on the target of limiting the temperature rise to 2°C.

The temperature has already risen 0.7°C. If the total increase is to be kept to 2°C, it will require a drastic change of course according to the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC). Firstly, the industrial countries must cut their greenhouse gas emissions by 25-40 per cent by 2020. Secondly, the developing countries cannot continue to let their emissions increase.

What is COP15?

Back in 1992 most countries joined the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC), the objective of which is to stabilize the atmospheric content of greenhouse gases at a level that prevents dangerous man-made climate change.

The convention is a “framework convention”. This means that it is a comprehensive tool for the reduction of greenhouse gas emissions, but contains no binding obligations to reduce them.

Each year, countries from all over the world meet for the annual climate change conference (Conference of Parties). From 7-18 December, Denmark will host the 15th Conference of Parties (COP15).

COP15 will be one of the biggest UN conferences ever held outside New York and Geneva, with an estimated attendance of between 12,000 to 15,000 delegates, including NGOs and journalists. The conference will take place in the conference centre “Bella Center”. A number of related events will be hosted in and around Copenhagen in the period up to and during COP15, all aimed at creating support for a new global climate deal and drawing attention to the fight against climate change.

Ban Ki-moon: now is the time
The focus of the negotiations in Copenhagen will be the need
to agree upon a new, fair, ambitious and global agreement on climate change. It took nearly eight years to ratify the Kyoto Protocol, and the Copenhagen conference represents almost the last chance to reach a new agreement if it is to be approved and ratified prior to the expiry of the binding commitments in the Kyoto Protocol in 2012.

In 2007 at the climate change conference in Bali, all countries agreed to the Bali Action Plan with the objective of an agreed outcome in Copenhagen in 2009. The action plan set out the structure of a future agreement with a long-term shared vision and four building blocks for a new agreement: technology, finance, mitigation and adaptation.

“We must reach a global climate change deal before the end of the year – one that is balanced, comprehensive and ratifiable by all nations”, says United Nations Secretary-General Ban Ki-moon.

The Danish example

A central argument for resisting binding targets for reducing greenhouse gas emissions is concern over economic growth. However, experience from Denmark shows that with a persistent and active energy policy focused on increasing energy efficiency, it is possible to maintain high economic growth while at the same time reducing dependency on fossil fuels and protecting the environment. Denmark’s energy efficiency is today among the highest in the EU, and continues to improve each year. The country has one of the most efficient uses of energy and a low level of CO2 emission in relation to production levels, compared to other EU and OECD countries. Since 1980, Denmark’s economy has grown by 78 percent alongside nearly stable energy consumption and reduced CO2 emissions.

Rich countries must take the lead
It is no secret that the ongoing negotiations at civil servant level to prepare a new climate agreement are proceeding slowly. On the one hand, the developing countries are disappointed that the industrial countries have not given a binding pledge to make major cuts in their greenhouse gas emissions. The industrial countries have historically emitted large amounts and have thus created the problem. So they have to take the lead, the developing countries argue.

This demand has the support of the Executive Secretary of the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC), Yvo de Boer. If the industrial countries do not take on commitments of the magnitude that IPCC is proposing, “it will spoil the entire purpose of a Copenhagen agreement”, de Boer said to news agency AFP during a negotiation round in Bonn at the beginning of August.

On the other hand, the industrial countries emphasise that although they are taking on significant limitations, it will not protect the climate as long as a number of fast-growing economies continue to increase their emissions, as is happening at the moment. China and India for example have no commitments under the Kyoto Protocol. Of necessity they must have commitments in a new agreement – however at a lower level of ambition than the “old” industrial countries, is the argument from the USA and EU, amongst others.

Photo: Scanpix

Obama’s commitment spurs hope
The situation seems intractable, but many observers point out that the new administration in the US has created fresh impetus.

“I am cautiously optimistic. If it had not been for President Obama, who has repeatedly stressed his commitment to this issue, I would not have held out any hope for it,” said Rajendra Pachauri, chairman of IPCC, in July according to news agency Bloomberg.

Firstly, Rajendra Pachauri referred to Barack Obama being actively instrumental in the US House of Representatives having passed a climate plan which – if it is also passed by the US Senate – will result in taxes on CO2 emissions. Secondly, the US president was one of the driving forces during the G8 summit
in Italy, where it was agreed to work for limiting the increase in global temperature to a maximum of 2°C.

Photo: Scanpix

The EU shows its hand
At the moment, the EU leads the field. With a pledge to reduce CO2 emissions by 20 per cent in 2020 compared to the 1990 level, there is not far to go to the level that IPCC is calling for. The EU has even offered to increase its commitment to a 30 per cent cut, if other large economies make “comparable” cuts in the their emissions.

The USA – which declined to take a position on the climate issue under the former administration – has not yet given any clear promises. The preliminary reports can be translated to a reduction of a few percentage points compared to the 1990 level. Other leading industrial countries such as Japan and Australia promise a bit more, but for now are a long way from a level that can prevent the temperature from continuing to rise.

A situation, which according to news agency AP caused UNFCCC’s Yvo de Boer to sigh “if we continue at this speed, we won’t reach it”, during the negotiations in August in Bonn. Nor should one forget that many countries are probably sitting on the fence, waiting to see what other countries will agree to before they show their hand – perhaps at the very last moment.

So under all circumstances it will be very interesting – and important for the future of the planet – to see what happens in Copenhagen in December.

Preserving rain forests

The negotiations concerning how much the various countries should do to cut their CO2 emissions are dominating the media
in the lead up to the UN Climate Change Conference in Copenhagen, but there are actually a number of other subjects on the agenda.

First and foremost, it is likely that the world’s countries will agree on a new mechanism which can curb the destruction of rain forests. These tropical forests play a major role in ensuring a stable climate: it is thought that they absorb about half of the extra CO2 that man emits.

The new mechanism is called Reducing Emissions from Deforestation and Forest Degradation (REDD). It will give countries that provide economic support to the preservation of rain forests a discount on their obligations to reduce CO2 emissions. A similar mechanism, the Clean Development Mechanism (CDM), already exists and correspondingly gives credits to countries that support climate-friendly projects in developing countries.

Another major subject in Copenhagen will be the financing of adaptation to those effects of climate change which will unavoidably occur. The UN estimates that there is a need for USD 200 billion annually to alleviate these effects – for example by building dykes and rehousing climate refugees. There is broad agreement that the industrial countries, which historically have created most of the problem, should support adaptation in poor countries. A model has however not yet been found for how much the various industrial countries should pay.