Preconditions and risk factors

A precondition for achieving the desired results is that the Afghan Government honours the commitments that the country has undertaken in conformity with the Afghanistan Compact and as the primary body responsible for implementing ANDS (Afghanistan National Development Strategy). Similarly, it is a precondition that the international community maintains its focus on Afghanistan and honours its commitments, for example regarding coordination and good donor practice.

Among the key risk factors are:

• A deteriorated security situation, for example, in the lead up to the elections in 2009, or if the result of the election is seriously questioned, or if elections can only be held in parts of the country where there is security, thereby leading to a marginalisation of the Pashtun section of the population.
  
• A complex threat picture and complicated ethnic, clan and regional structures. There is a risk that the international community will become involuntarily involved in local and regional power struggles.
  
• Declining international support could undermine security and reduce the effect of development, which in turn will contribute to a further deterioration of the security situation.
  
• Considerable resources are invested in developing capacity. However, the lack of human and institutional capacity at all levels sets an absolute limit for how fast the Afghan capacity can be built up.
  
• Corruption, inadequate political leadership or democratic regression, which undermines the opportunity for building strong and stable institutions and for reestablishing trust in the Central Government, especially in a population that is distrustful of centralised power structures.
  
• The narcotics industry’s negative influence on the security situation, on good governance and on selected population groups’ interest in supporting the Government actively in the counter-insurgency struggles.
  
• A deteriorated situation in Pakistan, where gradually increased instability and, in the worse case, a collapse of the state could significantly destabilise Afghanistan.

Denmark will in the implementation of the tangible efforts seek to counter these challenges. However, if there are extremely dramatic changes in the preconditions and risk factors, it may become necessary to formulate a new strategy for the Danish efforts.