The Challenges

Security

There are large regional differences in the security situation. In the northern and western part of the country, the security situation is relatively stable. However, there are areas where, among other things, activities of criminal groups prevent reconstruction and development activities. The Taliban and the other insurgent and terrorist groups operate primarily in the southern and eastern parts of the country, and here the security situation is critical, although the situation varies considerably at local level.

At the same time, the Taliban and the other insurgent and terrorist groups are not dependent on their ability to confront ISAF and the Afghan National Army militarily, but rather on their ability to use terrorism and propaganda as a way of destabilising Afghanistan, intimidating the population and wearing down the will of the international community. In step with the increasing difficulties that the insurgent groups experience in fighting ISAF and the Afghan National Army, the insurgents therefore endeavour to regain the initiative by means of asymmetrical warfare in the form of, for example, suicide bombers and roadside bombs targeted at international forces, Afghan security forces, NGOs, officials and civilians who support the Afghan Government. Lastly, kidnappings have been carried out on several occasions. This type of warfare has spread to large parts of the country, including the capital Kabul, and contributes to the perception among the population in Afghanistan that the security situation has deteriorated.

State building and human rights

Afghanistan is due to hold presidential and parliamentary elections as well as provincial and district council elections during the strategy period. Both the preparations for and the holding of the elections will have a major influence on the future of Afghanistan’s infant democracy. The state and provincial administration are characterised by extremely limited capacity, unresolved questions of competence, weak leadership, low salaries, corruption and abuse of power. In parallel with the public sector there exist local, traditional power structures that continue to exert considerable influence at all levels. This weakens the Afghan Government’s ability in many areas to reach out to the population and contributes to the poor security situation. Afghanistan is one of the most corrupt countries in the world, and a culture of corruption has developed which will take many years to eliminate. Besides a weak state and failing political will to take a direct confrontation with corruption, the powerful narcotics industry presents a particular problem to good governance.

The human rights situation in Afghanistan has improved considerably since 2001. However, there continue to be extensive human rights violations in the country. The Afghan judicial system is extremely weak and does not reach large parts of the country. The legislation is poorly developed, and both the formal and the informal judicial system use Sharia law. Afghanistan’s women continue to experience widespread discrimination and marginalisation in all aspects of social life.

Economic and social development

Afghanistan is one of the world’s poorest and least developed countries. The people living in rural areas are particularly vulnerable and suffer from, among other things, the lack of food security. A poor level of education combined with limited job opportunities mean that only few are able to lift themselves out of poverty. Over 40 per cent of the male population is unemployed, and for a very large number of people who have a job, the wages are so low that they have difficulty feeding themselves and their families. Even though six million children, of whom two million are girls, attend school, still only a third of young people aged 15-24 are able to read and write. The development of the Afghan private sector is making very slow progress, and 80-90 per cent of the economic activity takes place in the informal sector. Afghanistan does not produce sufficient food to feed the population, but imports most from abroad, primarily Pakistan. Continued instability, lack of regulation and a weak judicial system slows down private sector development. Also the lack of basic infrastructure and access to electricity are a major impediment.

The narcotics economy

Around 93 per cent of the world’s opium is grown in Afghanistan, and opium production has exploded in recent years. This has made the narcotics industry the primary economic activity in Afghanistan. The narcotics industry finances the activities of insurgents, fosters widespread corruption at all levels and undermines general development in Afghanistan.

Refugees

Three million Afghan refugees continue to reside outside the country, primarily in Pakistan and Iran. It is expected that up to one million will return to Afghanistan during the next 3-4 years. The local capacity is inadequate to handle such large groups, who have often been outside the country for decades. Many of the refugees continue to live in temporary shelters, and a renewed increase in pressure on local resources could create frustration, rekindle tensions and thus contribute to social unrest and deteriorated security.

Regional perspectives

Fostering stability and development in Afghanistan is closely tied to the regional situation and Afghanistan’s relations to the countries in the region. In the border areas between Pakistan and Afghanistan, radicalisation and lawlessness are widespread. Similarly, the situation in Pakistan offers insurgents the opportunity to recruit, train and arm new troops. A large proportion of the narcotics smuggling that finances the Taliban’s activities in Afghanistan passes through Pakistan. However, Pakistan is at the same time Afghanistan’s most important trade partner, and millions of Afghans have strong family and tribal bonds to Pakistan.