3. AFGHANISTAN’S DEVELOPMENT PRIORITIES

Since 2002 the government of Afghanistan has taken considerable ownership of the reconstruction process with the full backing of the international community. In April 2002 the government presented its ”National Development Framework” (NDF). The NDF states the main national priorities for the reconstruction and defines the guidelines for its implementation through a number of national programmes with nation-wide scope. Autumn 2002 saw the preparation of the first national budget exercise under the leadership of the Ministry of Finance. This resulted in a ”National Development Budget for Afghanistan” (NDB). Although the budget process was less than perfect due to limited administrative capacity and insufficient data, some important principles were established. The budget procedure was introduced as the primary instrument in the cabinet's prioritisation among the many development needs, and the international donor community was requested to only support programmes and projects contained in the NDB.

In 2004 the national development plan appeared; it is entitled ”Securing Afghanistan's Future: Accomplishments and the Strategic Path Forward” (SAF). In the extensive analysis conducted by a large number of Afghan and international experts it is estimated that over the next 12 years Afghanistan will need external development assistance to the tune of USD 28 billion to safeguard the country's reconstruction and development. The analysis is based on the assumption of annual 9 per cent economic growth during the entire period. The large external financing demand of the investment programme is set in relation to the approximately USD 13 billion a year currently spent by the international community on peace-keeping and anti-terrorism activities in Afghanistan, and which the government expects can gradually be reduced in step with the anticipated increased security and stability that will follow in the wake of extensive reconstruction efforts.

In the SAF the Afghan government is aiming at per capita GNP of USD 500 in 2015 and with the following objectives: (i) to halve the number of people living under the poverty level, (ii) to ensure basic education for all, (iii) to eliminate gender inequality in the area of basic schooling, (iv) to increase the rate of adult literacy to 56 percent, (v), to halve mortality among children under the age of five, and (vi) to reduce maternal mortality from 1600 to 205 per 100,000.

The main priorities in the investment programme to achieve these targets are:

1. development of human capital with the main focus on education and health as well as the reintegration of refugees and the internally displaced.
2. development of the productive sectors, primarily agriculture, and development of rural districts, including physical infrastructure.
3. reconstruction of the state through the promotion of good governance, including reform of the public sector and the security sector.

The government of Afghanistan is currently in the process of drawing up a strategy as such for poverty reduction. An interim ”National Development Strategy” is expected to be ready at the turn of the year 2005/06 and a complete poverty reduction strategy (PRSP) one year later. During the strategy period the Danish effort will be aligned with adjustments in the national priorities. The objectives for the PRSP are expected to be carried over from ”Securing Afghanistan's Future”, and it is not anticipated that the national priorities will be significantly altered. Likewise it is anticipated that the national development programmes will be continued.