2. DEVELOPMENT AND CHALLENGES IN AFGHANISTAN

- THE POLITICAL, SECURITY POLICY, SOCIAL AND ECONOMIC SITUATION

Considerable challenges remain in the efforts to build up a secure, stable and peaceful society and create the frames for the democratic development and strengthening of a well-functioning state. After the installing of the transitional government, the adoption of the constitution and the holding of the presidential election, the final milestone in the political transition process – the Bonn Process – was the parliamentary and local elections in September 2005.

2.1 Democratisation, good governance and human rights

More than 20 years' conflict in Afghanistan resulted in the collapse of the national state. The reformation of the Afghan state is therefore one of the primary challenges for rebuilding Afghanistan. Important elements in rebuilding the state are that the government gains control of the security situation in the country and establishes control of executive power at central and local levels, and that a society ruled by law is developed with state institutions that are transparent and not corrupt.

In accordance with the Bonn agreement, the democratisation process has focused on the adoption of a new constitution, holding elections and the formal establishment of new democratic institutions.

The first step was the adoption of the new constitution which lays down that Afghanistan is a democracy with a strong presidency, a national assembly with two chambers and an independent legal system. The constitution defines Islam as the state religion. Simultaneously the constitution guarantees respect for citizens'- both women's and men's - equal access to fundamental rights that include both civil and political rights as well as a number of economic, social and cultural rights. The constitution is unclear concerning the precise division of competence between the legislature, the executive and the judiciary, and reference is made to the coming specification of this in detailed legislation. Likewise, the balance between Islamic principles and international standards of human rights also leaves room for interpretation.

For the new institutions to be able to form the framework for democratic development in Afghanistan, however, there is also a great need to strengthen the democratic culture and involve the population in the political process. The Afghan population have as yet only limited experience of formal elections, but Afghanistan is a country with a strong tradition of participation in local decision-making processes through local, traditional institutions. Even though conservative values have dominated many of these local structures and women's influence has been limited, principles such as justice, creating consensus and anti-corruption are deeply embedded in traditional Afghan participant-oriented processes. Therefore involving the population in the political sphere and strengthening the structures of civil society at local level are important challenges.

The successful presidential election in October 2004 was a confirmation of the population's desire for democratic development. Women constituted 42% of the electors, so that the election represented a breakthrough from the point of view of gender also. The Taliban and other militant groups did not succeed in disrupting election day. The election is evaluated as representing the will of the Afghan people despite certain technical problems during the election itself. The new government is ethnically balanced and with one exception the ministers are not associated with the human rights violations of the past. The parliamentary elections and the elections to the provincial councils in September 2005 were a far greater logistical challenge than the presidential election, but in general the election proceeded without problems and, once again, without the Taliban being successful in sabotaging the process. What remains now is to see the way in which the 249-seat parliament will function in light of the fact that each candidate has been individually elected and political parties as such have yet to develop.

The government has launched a long-term reform of the public sector with the aim of creating a transparent and efficient public administration at central, provincial and district level. Surprisingly enough the public administrative structures have survived the many years of conflict and political collapse, but the structures are very fragmented and centralised and their functions overlap. There is a serious lack of qualified personnel with modern leadership and administrative competencies and not least of women, who were dismissed during the Taliban regime. The reform includes the establishment of an appointments and promotion system based on performance, the adjustment of the number of public employees, organisational reform in the most important ministries to avoid overlapping of functions and to ensure the efficient utilisation of personnel resources, and a devolution reform. Up to now there has only been limited progress in the reform process for reasons of stability. Moreover, the government wishes to improve public financial management by the development of a national multi-annual budget where the delegation of budget responsibility is made possible by the establishment of mechanisms for supervision and transparency in public financial management.

The possibility of the Afghan government to spread its executive powers to the whole of the country is being challenged by former warlords and local commanders, who have great influence on the local police force in parts of the country and who also control the earnings from the trade in drugs. In some cases the government has had to cooperate with the warlords in order to ensure stability. This may prove undermining for the development of democracy in the long term. In the complex power struggle between the local warlords and the government, however, the government has a number of important tools, including control of the national administrative system – although with low capacity. It also has the strong backing of the majority of the Afghan population, who are tired of decades of fighting and unrest, and the support of the international community.

The ethnic differences in Afghanistan have been the focal point of much of the violent rivalry that has characterised the country for decades, and ensuring balance between the ethnic groups and their participation in and influence on the democratic process will constitute an important challenge. Similarly it must be ensured that development assistance and economic development benefit all groups. In the initial phases of reconstruction the different ethnic groups have divided the institutions between them, which may be a sensible strategy in the first phase of reconstruction. It does, however, put the building up of society at risk if this division is consolidated in the longer term. Clear guidelines must be drawn up for how the ethnic balance is to be safeguarded at all levels, including government, parliament, the legal system and the public sector.

Building up a democratic, stable society should be based on respect for human rights. Afghanistan has ratified most of the international human rights conventions, including the convention against torture and the convention on the abolition of all forms of discrimination against women (CEDAW).

However, great obstacles need to be removed before women can enjoy respect and rights on an equal footing with men. The traditional norms of Afghan society mean that in large sections of the population there exist very restrictive informal rules for what is regarded as correct and virtuous female behaviour. Discrimination against women takes places both in the formal legal system and in judgments based on traditional conceptions of law and justice. Violence against women is a widespread phenomenon. Early and forced marriages are usual. The lack of access to education, health services and employment opportunities affects women far more severely than men. In addition, the new Afghan constitution guarantees respect for fundamental human rights. A quota system enshrined in the constitution guarantees women about one fourth of the seats in parliament and the provincial councils.

The Taliban's liquidation of government-friendly mullahs, judges, local government employees etc. is the most important infringement of the human rights of the population. The intimidation that local persons of power can practise vis-à-vis the population of a given area is a further obstacle to human rights. In accordance with the constitution, the high court can invalidate laws that it finds contrary to the Islamic faith. Therefore the existence of a reform-friendly high court is of great importance. There is a need for clarification of the relation between secular laws and Islamic sharia.

The population has very limited access to the formal legal system and courts, especially outside of Kabul. Capacity in the legal system is low due to a lack of resources and trained personnel. An extensive reform of the legal system has been initiated.

2.2 Social development

Afghanistan is still one of the poorest countries in the world. Despite high economic growth of an average of approximately 25 percent in 2002 and 2003, annual GDP per inhabitant is assumed to be only about USD 200 (USD 300 when the illegal narcotics economy is included.). Out of a population of around 24 million, approximately 70 per cent are living under the poverty level (with a calorie intake of less than 2100 calories a day). Only 23 per cent of the population have access to clean drinking water. With an average lifetime of 43, child mortality of approximately 165 per 1000 births, the world's highest rate of maternal mortality of 1600 per 100,000, adult literacy that is less than 30 per cent, Afghanistan is ranked as number 172 of 177 countries in the UN's Human Development Index. Women and children are the most severely affected by poverty and poor living conditions.

According to the UN, Afghanistan has the poorest education system in the world. Although the number of children attending school far exceeds the level under the Taliban regime, still only half of the children receive schooling. At the same time the quality of the education sector needs to be improved. The health system is also on its knees and is unable to supply the most basic services. Improvements in health and education are fundamental conditions for fulfilling the population's justified expectations concerning better conditions of life. A healthy, educated population is a precondition for increased economic growth and participation in the democratic processes and in society, not least for women.

Even though more than 4.2 million refugees and 800,000 internally displaced persons have returned, more than 3 million Afghans are still living outside the country as refugees. The majority of these are in the regions close by in Pakistan and Iran, and a large number are expected to return home in the coming years. They are typically people with no educational background, without financial resources, and with no home to return to. A very large group are expected to go to Kabul and thus contribute to the very extensive urbanisation. The pressures will likewise be increased in other geographical areas to which returnees come home. It is important to support the orderly return of refugees in order to avoid creating new social and economic problems.

2.3 Economic development

The many years of conflict have had a pervasively negative effect on the economy of Afghanistan. It has led to a considerable reduction of the workforce and has weakened the qualifications of the workforce due to poor or no schooling and the flight of many well-educated people from the country. The conflict has led to destruction of physical infrastructure such as roads and irrigation systems and has had a desruptive effect on trade and transport. Many years of severe drought from the end of the 1990s until 2004 have also contributed to a worsening of the situation. The high growth rates after the fall of the Taliban regime are primarily due to growth in agricultural production, the most important sector in the economy, as well as growth in construction and the service sector as part of the reconstruction efforts in the country.

The development of the private sector is a precondition for creating economic growth and development in the country. This will require, inter alia, the development of the framework conditions in the form of policies to promote the private sector and infrastructure as well as the procurement of credit opportunities in agriculture and for entrepreneurs in other industries. Clear rules for property rights and resolution of disputes about land, dwellings and farms are necessary framework conditions for progress.

Even with extremely optimistic prerequisites for growth, the Afghan state will only be able to cover its operational budget around 2010. In the case of investments, the need for development assistance will last considerably longer. Reform of the tax system and improvement of its administration are important elements in public sector reform.

Cultivation and processing of and trade in opium constitutes about 40 percent of the total money economy of the country, and gradual reduction leading to total discontinuation of illegal cultivation is a critical factor for securing stability and security in the country. Approximately 85 per cent of world opium production originates in Afghanistan, and in 2004-05 around 10 per cent of the Afghan population was involved in opium-related activities. This distorts agriculture, corrupts, and destabilises society. Reducing opium cultivation necessitates alternative earning possibilities for farmers. In addition to this are enforcement efforts to counter opium processing and trade.

Refugees and migrants inside and outside the region contribute to income in Afghanistan today by money transfers. This income will be reduced in step with the return to the country. Returned refugees can, naturally, continue to be a source of growth provided they have the possibility of obtaining homes, land, jobs, credit, education etc. Not all refugees from the region will return, but will to an increasing extent be seen as migrant workers in the neighbouring countries. In the longer term a functioning regulation of the labour migration will be necessary and activities that could support this development should be commenced.

2.4 The security situation

The difficult security situation is still an important limitation on the reconstruction process of the state. The reform of the security sector has started but big challenges remain. About 60,000 militia soldiers had been demobilised by the middle of 2005, but this must be consistently followed up by the disarming of the (illegal) armed groups. The Taliban's failure to carry out its bloody threats against the elections in 2004 and 2005 was an important milestone, but the Taliban and Al Qaida are still attempting to prevent progress under the new regime in Afghanistan. Former warlords and local commanders continue to pose a threat to the reconstruction of the country.

The reform of the Afghan military is proceeding well. About 26,000 soldiers have been trained and form part of the new army, the Afghanistan National Army, ANA. The aim is 70,000 in 2009, but the number should be continuously adjusted in the light of the expected threat and the economic burden on the national budget. The poor training and organisation of the police constitutes a considerable problem for the building up of an Afghan state. Up to now approximately 45,000 police officers have been trained with support from the international community at the newly-established police academy in Kabul and at training centres in provincial capitals. In 2005 the police force numbers about 53,000 in all. The target is a trained police force of 62,000 in 2006. International consultancy would seem to be necessary for some years yet.

The continued UN-sanctioned presence of international stabilising forces, ISAF, in which Denmark participates under UN auspices, as well as coalition forces mainly from the USA (Operation Enduring Freedom), will be necessary for some years to come until the Afghan military and police have the independent capacity to keep the threat of terrorism at bay, deter regional warlords and secure the borders of the country. At the same time the international forces are an important symbol of the western countries' support behind a democratic development process in the country.